Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surge

The trading week was nothing short of a roller coaster, dominated by a dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment that sent volatility through the energy and metals complexes, according to MarketPulse analyst Zain Vawda. The analyst explained that for much of the week, the primary narrative was the “unwinding of the fear trade” following the announcement of a tentative US-Iran ceasefire. Oil was the biggest casualty of this cooling rhetoric. Brent crude, which had been knocking on the door of triple digits amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz, tumbled as much as 15% mid-week. Gold, too, felt the pinch. After stalling at the $4,900 resistance level, the yellow metal saw its war premium erode, though it remains supported by a softer US dollar. Speaking of the greenback, the DXY is currently hovering near a critical “Golden Cross” support at 98.50. US equities enjoyed a strong recovery after the ceasefire news. The S&P 500 has finished green for seven consecutive trading sessions, the longest streak since October 2025. The index has rallied +7.6% over this period, recovering nearly the entire war decline. A similar 7-day stretch has also been recorded by the Nasdaq Composite, the longest since August 2025. Since the 1950s, the market has seen a similar streak with at least a +7.0% gain only nine other times, per Carson Investment Research. Following this, the S&P 500 has been higher in eight of those instances over the next month, with an average return of +4.4%. Over the following three months, the market has been up in seven instances and has gained +10.2% on average. History suggests market momentum is set to continue. This was despite US inflation data rising 0.9% MoM with headline inflation rising to its highest in two years. Inflation data had been the key data release this week and came in largely in line with estimates which left markets to focus on the geopolitical narrative as the week came to a close. Heading into the weekend, markets are rather optimistic as the US and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan scheduled to start on Saturday. The talks will likely have a massive impact on whether markets kick the new week off on a risk off or risk on tone. (Source: MarketPulse) The post Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surge appeared first on Financial Mirror.