Iran’s insistence on Lebanon ceasefire a test for regional sway

After authorizing the deadliest strikes on Lebanon in years on Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took to the podium in a national address to assure his audience that Tel Aviv and the United States are moving in lockstep. “As you know, a two-week temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran went into effect tonight, in full coordination with Israel. No, they did not surprise us at the last minute,” Netanyahu said.  The prime minister’s projection of confidence was taking aim at reports that emerged in US media that indicated Israeli officials were “unhappy” about being informed late of the ceasefire deal.  To demonstrate his confidence in this unity of vision, Netanyahu told the audience that the ceasefire with Iran will not include Hezbollah.  The only problem? For Iran, a ceasefire in Lebanon was part of its deal with the US. And with its control over the Strait of Hormuz still in hand, Iran has the most leverage in the talks. In a clear sign of this leverage, less than 24 hours after his remarks, Netanyahu had to do an about-face, asking for direct talks with the Lebanese government on the disarmament of Hezbollah and the regulation of peace relations between Israel and Lebanon. Two sources, a diplomatic source and a former Arab official who are both informed of talks between regional capitals, the Americans and the Israelis, tell Mada Masr that Netanyahu is under pressure to suspend major operations in Lebanon for the next two weeks and that the French, alongside the Lebanese government, are trying to peel the prospect of a ceasefire off from the Iran-US negotiations into a separate bilateral pathway.  The sources confirmed that the French initiative is being presented as a “gradual disarmament,” but the second source, the former Arab official with inroads in Western and regional capitals, dismissed the chances of this play succeeding. Today, sources close to Hezbollah and regional diplomats tell Mada Masr it is the Iranians, and by extension Hezbollah, who are in the driving seat. How long they are able to hold the line is a significant litmus test to the continued viability of the US and Israel’s multi-year plan to create a “New Middle East.”  *** The cracks in the facade of unity that Netanyahu was trying to uphold gave way within hours of his Wednesday night address.  Asked on the tarmac in Budapest, where he had been meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to support the right-wing nationalist’s upcoming election, Vance told the press pool: “The Israelis, ​as I understand it … have ​actually ⁠offered to, frankly, to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon, because they want ⁠to ​make sure that our ​negotiation is successful.” US Vice President JD Vance speaks to the press in Budapest about Lebanon’s inclusion in the US-Iran ceasefire, April 8. - Courtesy: Rapid Response 47 on X Netanyahu’s public address also prompted a phone call from US President Donald Trump, who officials previously told Mada Masr was “desperate” for a ceasefire deal. In the call, Trump asked the Israeli prime minister to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon to help ensure the success of the Iran negotiations, NBC News quotes a senior US administration official as saying. Trump confirmed that sentiment himself in an address on Thursday night. “I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump said. “Netanyahu is going to be fine. He’s going to low-key a little bit. He’s got a problem with Hezbollah. He’s going to low-key a little bit, but he’s going to be absolutely fine.”   Since Iran and the US agreed to a ceasefire to make way for negotiations in Islamabad that are set to start today, Iranian officials have insisted the ceasefire applies to Lebanon.  Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf took to X on Wednesday night to state that the Israeli military’s 100 strikes across Lebanon that killed over 300 people and injured over 1,100 constitute “non-compliance with the first clause of the 10-Point Proposal regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also weighed in: “If the U S. wishes to crater its economy by letting Netanyahu kill diplomacy, that would ultimately be its choice. We think that would be dumb but are prepared for it.” While the US and Israel have claimed that a ceasefire in Lebanon was outside the parameters of the agreement, Iran and the primary mediator in Pakistan have insisted from the start that it was part of the deal. But Iran is increasingly able to bend the terms of negotiations in its favor as it has withstood 40 days of relentless attacks from the US, doling out equal pain to the global economy by stoppering the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies flow.  *** As much as Iran has tried to insist on a ceasefire in Lebanon falling under the umbrella of the US-Iranian agreement, other actors have tried to separate talks to halt the Israeli war on Lebanon into a separate track.  This is the core of a French-led initiative, according to a regional diplomat that holds talks with Lebanese parties, the Americans and the Israelis.  “The French are keen to get Lebanon on an independent track away from the clout of Iran,” the diplomat says. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam took the effort public in comments on X this morning. “With the announcement of the agreement between the United States of America and Iran, through commendable Pakistani efforts, we are working to intensify our communications and political and diplomatic efforts in order to achieve a ceasefire in Lebanon. I also wish to emphasize that no one negotiates on behalf of Lebanon except the Lebanese state, and no one else, through its constitutional institutions, in a manner that preserves its sovereignty and the interests of its people.” Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam leads a cabinet meeting in Beirut amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, March 26. - Courtesy: Mohamed Azakir The core of the French initiative was to convince Israel “to accept a gradual process that will not be too aggressive for Hezbollah,” the regional diplomat says.  However, nothing about Netanyahu’s announcement and the leaks from Israeli officials on Thursday night followed the logic of “gradual.”  Shortly following the Israeli prime minister’s request for direct talks, Axios published details of what looked like rapid arrangements to bring the two sides together.  A senior Israeli official told the outlet that the talks will begin as early as next week at the US State Department and will bring together US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa with Israeli Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Nada Hamadeh-Moawad. However, the imminence of the talks as presented by Axios was quickly undermined.  The Israeli press quoted an Israeli cabinet member as saying that the “Lebanese government will need to dismiss Hezbollah ministers as a confidence-building step,” a move that the Lebanese government cannot make without setting off a domestic crisis.   Netanyahu’s demand to see Hezbollah disarmed also flies in the face of France’s sense of what is feasible. According to the regional diplomat, the French-led plan aimed to “have a security-based negotiation process whereby the Lebanese government will listen to all the Israeli concerns about Hezbollah activities north and south of Litani and will work to address these concerns with Hezbollah.”  *** While the French and Israel may be opposed in their approach, neither is in a position to dictate terms of the next steps. In mid March, France tried to flex its muscle “to prevent this country, so close to France, from once again being drawn into war.” In a lengthy post on X, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a “plan to bring an end to the military operations currently being carried out by Hezbollah and Israel on either side of the border.” Under the terms of the plan, Lebanese authorities gave him “their commitment to take control of the positions held by Hezbollah and to fully assume responsibility for security across the entire national territory. I give them my full support,” Macron said.  French President Emmanuel Macron visits the Gemmayzeh neighborhood in Beirut following the port explosion, August 2020. - Courtesy: The Globe Post A source from the Lebanese Forces belittled the success of the French plan at the time.  “The French initiative won’t take it anywhere, and all the calls France is trying to make with Israel and Lebanon won’t go anywhere. Because in Lebanon, the decision maker is not the Lebanese state. It is the one with arms. And on the ground, this is Hezbollah. Hezbollah answers neither to Berri nor to the Lebanese state,” the source told Mada Masr, adding that “any initiative that is not American, or with an American cover, at least, and which doesn’t communicate directly with Hezbollah will not go anywhere.” That is even more true today, the former Arab official with inroads into Western and regional capitals says. But, now, it is not the Americans that the French must consult.  “The French can do whatever they want. I don’t think anything would come out of a French initiative because, from now on, you cannot exclude Iran. The French will also have to talk to the Iranians if they want things to move,” the former official says.  Moreover, the former official adds, the Lebanese government has not been able to find a resolution to the war through all of its diplomatic efforts. Rather, it is Hezbollah and its connection to Iran that is proving effective in reining in the Israelis. “And that means Hezbollah cannot be excluded from future decision making,” the source says. Embodying this position of strength, Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad called on the Lebanese government to adhere to securing a ceasefire as a precondition before proceeding with any further steps. “While reiterating our rejection of any direct negotiations between Lebanon and the Israeli enemy, we stress the necessity of upholding national principles, foremost among them is the Israeli withdrawal, the cessation of hostilities and the return of residents to their villages and towns,” Fayyad said.  Speaking in the last week of March, a source close to Nabih Berri ruled out the possibility of talks with Israel as such. “There will be no talk, now or in the coming period, of normalization or negotiations. Hezbollah, alongside Iran, is achieving exceptional military gains inside Israel. Entering talks with Israel at this stage would signal weakness and place Lebanon in a vulnerable position,” the source told Mada Masr.  Hezbollah and Amal’s confidence is bolstered by their ability to stymie the Israeli invasion so far and continue to arm themselves.  Despite losing a key ally in former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad shortly after the 2024 war with Israel, a Lebanese source close to Hezbollah tells Mada Masr that the group has been able to secure the flow of a significant supply of weapons from Iran via Syria. “We have our sources inside Syria, no matter how hard Ahmed al-Sharaa tries to assert control,” the source says, explaining the group’s ability to defend itself despite the setbacks of the 2024 war and the Lebanese government’s disarmament campaign.  *** The Americans are much less concerned about a lasting peace between Israel and Lebanon, the regional diplomat says.  “What the Americans are saying is that they’ve asked the Israelis to suspend major operations for the next two weeks for the duration of the series of negotiations. If the negotiations take longer than two weeks, then the request for Israel to stay out of Lebanon will continue, at least, for major operations.”   However, Israel does not seem interested in completely complying and will likely continue to try to shape the scope of negotiations through its operations on the ground.  On Thursday night, Israel carried out “preemptive” strikes on Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon, shortly after it had warned that the militant group could expand launches of projectiles across Israel.  According to the regional diplomat, Israel will find excuses to target Lebanon. “And I don’t think [Lebanese President Joseph] Aoun minds that Israel hits Hezbollah harshly.” An Israeli airstrike targets the town of Srifa in southern Lebanon, April 8. - Courtesy: Alafdal News on Instagram Israel is continuing to carry out ground operations in the south of Lebanon, as well. On Thursday, it launched tank fire in Khiam, the site of a weeks-long battle it has waged in the southeast of the country. It also continued its advance in an attempt to encircle the symbolic town of Bint Jbeil, which Israel failed to capture in the two-week battle that concluded the 2006 war. Hezbollah said on Thursday evening that it was engaged in direct clashes with Israeli forces in the town. If Israel continues these strikes and ground operations, it will run the risk of plunging the region back into war, however, a possibility that Israel is chomping at the bit for.  On Thursday night, Iranian media reported that Tehran informed Pakistan that it does not intend to attend the peace talks before a ceasefire is in place in Lebanon. For the former Arab official, Iran’s demonstrated control of the Strait of Hormuz has changed the regional balance of power.  “We are now not talking about the Middle East that Netanyahu was hoping to create,” the former official says. “Rather, we are again talking about a Middle East in which Iran is a leading regional player.” Short of another regional upheaval, these are terms Netanyahu must now deal with, however unhappy he is about it. The post Iran’s insistence on Lebanon ceasefire a test for regional sway first appeared on Mada Masr.